← No. 020 MON 19 OCT 2026

Some U.S. oilfields emit four times more methane than reported.

MethaneSAT basin maps — Permian, Eagle Ford, San Joaquin; Zagros Foldbelt

Peer‑reviewed MethaneSAT maps (May 2024–May 2025), published May 5, 2026, show oil‑and‑gas methane in two major U.S. basins—the Permian and Eagle Ford—about four times higher than the EPA’s gridded inventory, and about twice in California’s San Joaquin. In the Zagros Foldbelt, the estimated loss rate is 25.5% (95% CI 18.5–32.6%). These basin‑scale estimates are now feeding independent assessments and oversight.

Why it’s interesting

Fig. 020 Four basins as islands: two with four contours (≈4×), one with two (≈2×), and a notched basin with a black wedge marking a 25.5% loss rate.

Why it’s interesting

Inventories set rules and penalties; if they miss most of what’s there, the fixes miss too. Seeing a basin with roughly a quarter of its gas lost reframes “leaks” as large, measurable waste.

The longer version

A peer‑reviewed study aggregated 33 MethaneSAT scenes from May 2024 to May 2025 across six oil‑and‑gas regions. In the United States, the satellite’s basin‑level estimates came out two to five times higher than the 2020 gridded EPA inventory, including about four times higher in the Permian and Eagle Ford and about twice in California’s San Joaquin. In the Zagros Foldbelt of Iran and Iraq, the study estimated a methane loss rate of 25.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 18.5–32.6%.

The results were published on May 5, 2026 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, with a supplement explaining how the Zagros figure depends on the exact boundary used. Independent uses of the same observations appear in the IEA’s 2026 Global Methane Tracker, and a U.S. Senate oversight letter (Mar 18, 2026) cited the ≈4× Permian result, underscoring that these basin‑scale numbers are already informing checks on reported emissions.

Edition: No. 020
Date: Monday 19 October 2026
Subject: MethaneSAT basin maps
Locality: Permian, Eagle Ford, San Joaquin; Zagros Foldbelt
Period: May 2024–May 2025; published May 5, 2026
Field: earth
Evidence: 4 sources, 2 primary

See how we got here

Found after 26 research paths · Selected from 6 candidates

01 Methane & climate Short‑lived but powerful greenhouse gas.
02 Oil & gas basins Leaks and venting cluster in a few fields.
03 Satellites for methane MethaneSAT launched in 2024 to map basin‑scale plumes.
04 Basin‑scale maps 33 scenes, May 2024–May 2025, across six regions.
05 Inventory mismatch U.S. basins 2–5× EPA; 4× in Permian and Eagle Ford; 2× in San Joaquin.
06 Zagros loss rate 25.5% with 95% CI of 18.5–32.6%.
→ Some U.S. oilfields emit four times more methane than reported.

Sources

Nothing publishes without independent sources. How we verify →

1
Methane intensity and emissions across major oil and gas basins and individual jurisdictions using MethaneSAT observations
Copernicus/EGU – Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · 2026 · peer reviewed Primary

All core claims: scene dates (May 2024–May 2025); 2–5× vs EPA‑GHGI in U.S.; ~4× in Permian & Eagle Ford and ~2× in San Joaquin; Zagros basin loss rate 25.5% (95% CI 18.5–32.6%).

doi.org
2
Supplement to: Methane intensity and emissions across major oil and gas basins and individual jurisdictions using MethaneSAT observations
Copernicus/EGU – Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Supplement) · 2026 · peer reviewed Primary

Tabulated loss‑rate values show 18.6% [13.4–23.8%] for the full observation domain and ≈25.4% [18.3–32.5%] for the Zagros oil‑and‑gas basin, aligning with the 25.5% (18.5–32.6%) reported in the paper body.

acp.copernicus.org
3
Whitehouse Investigates Alarming Mismatch Between Reported Methane Emissions and Actual Methane Emissions in Permian Basin (Letter, Mar 18, 2026)
U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW) – Minority News · 2026 · government

Corroborates that MethaneSAT data (May 2024–June 2025) indicate Permian methane emissions are ≈4× higher than EPA’s inventory figures.

epw.senate.gov
4
Global Methane Tracker 2026
International Energy Agency (IEA) · 2026 · scientific organization

Independent analysis uses MethaneSAT 2024–2025 observations to report basin‑level methane intensities (including U.S. basins and the Zagros Foldbelt), corroborating the high basin‑scale intensities derived from MethaneSAT.

iea.blob.core.windows.net

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